April 2021 IOR Bulletin

Photo By: Erasmus Kamugisha (Wikimedia); pictured at Bagamoyo, Tanzania

There is a lot to say about India in this edition.  

From discussions on the value of India pursuing a third aircraft carrier to the country’s economic policy that is potentially shaping-up to be more inward looking.  The natural question emerges: can India’s economic policy support its security requirements in the Indian Ocean Region?   It would seem there is a strategic imperative for India to be more outwardly engaging in its security posture to support the rules-based international order, but can India domestically support this imperative --- if it is an imperative?

Don’t forget about the sanctions hanging over the U.S. - India relationship.  India’s purchase of Russian S-400s seems like a practical investment, but does the purchase risk putting the breaks on the U.S.-India security relationship, or is this a pothole in the broader strategic picture?   (We could ask the same question about the recent U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operation.)  The S-400 (and the FONOP) highlights that the U.S.-India relationship and its import to the region will be shaped by external stakeholders beyond the President and Prime Minister. 

….and finally, is India fully aligned bureaucratically to compete in the entire Indian Ocean Region, or does it, like other countries, carve the region-up; thus, missing opportunities to shape outcomes?  Another way of asking this question --- are China and Indian Ocean Island states the only actors viewing the region holistically? (Is it a fair assumption that China is viewing the region as an entity?)

We have a wide mix of other unique perspectives on deck for your reading pleasure, too:

1. Indian Ocean Island States -- they didn't go anywhere.  Interesting discussion on the evolving legal landscape regarding the Chagos islands.  This, with examples from Sri Lanka, shows small states in the region are their own actors, not playing by anyone's marching orders.

2. Interesting insights on illicit trafficking and the use of non-traditional trafficking vessels to outsmart enforcement efforts. (This could get interesting with events in Mozambique and Myanmar.)

3. Speaking of enforcement….should the region look to the Enforcement Coordination Cell (ECC) as a model for cooperation and coordination on maritime efforts?  Could the ECC offer a model to manage the ever increasing presence of outside actors in the region?

4. Last and certainly not least, we have a trove of articles offered to the community regarding environmental impacts of maritime activities on the region.  The environmental question is cropping up a lot --- from Japanese and Chiense ships spilling oil in Mauritius waters to the wiating to happen SAFER disaster, adn the QUAD.  As the Ever Given situation matures, it will be interesting ot watch if the backlog of shipping introducted unexpected environmental complications.

(Note: Last IOR Bulletin we had calls for action regarding working groups to focus on environmentally oriented issues in the Middle East and a question on medical plastics’ potential impact on the region.  If you’d like to re-engage on these topics, let us know at iorbulletin@gmail.com and we’ll connect you with the appropriate points of contact.)

One alibi….Europeans in the Indian Ocean Region…..how might they usefully engage in the region beyond writing strategy documents (or guidance)?   France likely has some ideas, and the U.K. and Germany are about to give us some insights with their upcoming deployments to the region.

Worth Watching

Mozambique:  Cabo Del Gado. Insurgency leading to significant displacement of people and impacting major oil and natural gas investments. Multiple partners (state and non-state) are now offering assistance.

---More -- Cabo Del Gado is home to ruby mining operations, a hub in heroin trade, a critical route for an economic development corridor ending in Mtware Port, Tanzania.
 
---Consideration -- What is the potential for these events to grow and lead to further destabilization along the Mozambique Channel & do these events demonstrate a pssible need to extend maritime security activities in the Horn of Africa along the entire East African coastline?

---Take a watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOZP7qdvFIg 

Tanzania: To the north, a head of state dies due to COVID-19 ushering in new leadership under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who joins a short list of African female heads of state and Tanzania joined South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Malawi to help Mozambique address its insurgency challenge.  

Red Sea Adventures: Ethiopia - Eritrea & Israel - Iran:  Will Eritrea ever open its coastline to use by Ethiopia?  Worth considering given their recent collaboration against Tigray People's Liberation Front.  Meanwhile, tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia in the disputed Al-Fashaga region could complicate Red Sea affairs with Eritrea, Egypt, the U.S. and Russia.

And then...

Iran and Israel seem engaged in a shadow maritime war in the northwest Indian Ocean.

---Consideration -- Are we seeing a shift in the maritime security environment from piracy to shadow state-state conflict in this part of the Indian Ocean Region and what does this mean for the rest of East Africa?

---Worth a glance: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sudan-ethiopia-idUSKBN2AK0LE & https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-linked-attack-on-iranian-ship-seems-like-a-deliberate-escalation-1.9691972 

Myanmar: Lest we forget about the military’s recent take over in Myanmar and how these dynamics will play out between ASEAN, India, China, the U.S., Japan, Australia, and others.

---Consideration -- As the military risks returning Myanmar to a state ofisolation, what risks are there to East African stability if the military creates a reliance on Indian Ocean maritime illicity trafficking for funds?

We know we missed a lot, so if you are burning for us to highlight something send it to us at iorbulletin@gmail.com or tweet us @Bulletinior.

Recent Works

Phillip Shetler-Jones

Highlights: Lessons from the Enforcement Coordination Cell for broader cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.

https://euroasiasecurityforum.com/2021/01/23/enforcement-coordination-cell-the-5-eyes-hidden-gem-of-indo-pacific-security-cooperation/ 

Dr. Jonathan Ward

Highlights: India’s choices today will shape, and in all likelihood, determine the structure of the international system. 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1L8hFQS3lkKisXftYC_9iGSKQzUg9qkU9/view?usp=sharing

Dr. Ian Ralby

Highlights: Cross-purposing vessels to advance illicit trafficking.  Case study: antiquities smuggling.

https://www.diplomaticourier.com/posts/crossover-criminal-vessels-a-growing-illicit-maritime-trend

Dr. David Brewster

Highlights:  Is India putting its international clout at risk through its domestic economic appraoch?  India needs to move forward with its third carrier even with domestic economic limitations.   Are Russia and China teaming-up in the IOR to conduct trilateral engagements -- what do these engagement suggest for future collaobration (or competition) along the East African littoral?  India and a denial strategy to weaken Chinese presnece in the Indian Ocean Region.  Who owns Chagos Islands: Internet domain (.io) and who gets the money?  Chagos, Maldives, Mauritius, the Uk and litiagion chellenges expanding.

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/india-heads-towards-economic-autarky https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/third-aircraft-carrier-india-budget-versus-necessity https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/western-indian-ocean-where-trouble-land-spells-danger-sea
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/russia-and-china-team-indian-ocean https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/diego-garcia-dispute-hits-cyberspace https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/chagos-boundary-dispute-tips-over-sovereignty-ruling https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/india-should-prioritise-denial-strategy-indian-ocean

Captain (Dr) Nitin Agarwala 

Highlights: Achieving sustainable ocean development is critical to address consequences and risks to humans, especially around the Bay of Bengal area.   Regional cooperation, using best practices, integrating / fish / marine resources, and awarenes through knowledge hsaring is critical.  Effects of the Pandemic and plastics on Ocean health lessons learned, important considerations, and can artificial intellignece and machine learning be part of the solution?  Of note: the Indian Ocean saw a drop in noise by 29dbs during the Pandemic.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JIEphzaP9-yIyILFQt2GJ_ploWOd9450/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1K4Ith0wT0XvQd51tjeYzdW7O1ZQOVeky/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pUxoyljWrLads6qI554AgLm2FHmIBH9x/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bjbq8KCtLaTf1INQM0HwI3Ae99Z-SmeY/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Yhdv-dCCv4Kv-CwtqugWfIdzixWLu5CQ/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AUHNH7q7jVRW2zsoB9L-87a1YHFxNhAZ/view?usp=sharing

Nilanthi Samaranayake

Highlights:  How should the US (and India) consider broadening their relationship to include Euorpean actors?  Small states have agency in Great Power Competition -- pay attention to the internal dynamics -- case study: Sri Lanka.

https://www.gmfus.org/blog/2021/02/16/us-india-cooperation-indo-pacific-security  https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/02/sri-lanka-china-bri-investment-debt-trap/

Rick Rossow

Highlights: India and the U.S. “Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act” -- who’s the bigger threat: Russia or China?  

https://thediplomat.com/2021/02/assessing-indias-caatsa-sanctions-waiver-eligibility/ 

Ray Vickery

Highlights: US-India relationship viewed through the lens of Congress will be shaped by China and select business interests for the trade agenda, the strength of the relationship, therefore, will be based less on its merits and more by external factors. 

https://www.csis.org/blogs/adapt-advance-refreshed-agenda-us-india-relations/117th-congress-and-us-india-relations

Darshana Baruah

Highlights: The U.S. should consider a tri-service maritime deployment of USMC, USN, and USCG to the Indian Ocean Region as well as get series about the region by establishing a cell to focus on U.S. approaches to engaging the entire region.  The U.S. isn’t the only one with bureaucratic silos inhibiting its strategic approach to the region --- India is just starting to figure out how to think of the region in its entirety.

https://warontherocks.com/2021/03/showing-up-is-half-the-battle-u-s-maritime-forces-in-the-indian-ocean/
https://www.hindustantimes.com/opinion/it-is-time-to-reimagine-the-indian-ocean-101617111891839.html   

Please note that not all articles shared under the listed name are the authors of the pieces. 

The News Wrap-up

Flag follows trade, Navy chief on China operating in Indian Ocean
Hindustan Times
India is keeping tabs on China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea and taking steps to ensure that the Chinese navy doesn’t muscle its way into the Indian Ocean where combat-ready Indian warships are carrying out round-the-clock surveillance for any unusual activity.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/flag-follows-trade-navy-chief-on-china-operating-in-indian-ocean-101618406205791.html

Two Chinese Survey Ships are Probing a Strategic Section of the Indian Ocean
USNI
China is gathering data on the undersea environment in the Indian Ocean as evidenced by two government survey ships seen operating in the region via open source satelite photos.  These survey activities may be aimed at giving Chinese submariners an advantage in their area.
https://news.usni.org/2021/03/23/two-chinese-survey-ships-are-probing-a-strategic-section-of-the-indian-ocean

La Pérouse – Quad naval exercise and India’s strategic partnership with France
KASHISH PARPIANIMRITYUNJAYA DUBEY
The advantages of India's early prudence on cultivating multiple "strategic alignments" in the Indo-Pacific are apparent with French proactiveness in the Indian Ocean region.
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/la-perouse-quad-naval-exercise-and-indias-strategic-partnership-with-france/

Egypt seizes ship that blocked Suez Canal over $900m compensation claim
BBC
Egypt will impound the giant container ship that blocked the Suez Canal last month until its Japanese owner pays $900m (£652m) in compensation. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-56743556

Britain Holds On to a Colony in Africa, With America’s Help 
NYT
And together they are sabotaging their own efforts to curb China's advances in the South China Sea. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/opinion/uk-mauritius-china-us.html

“A ticking time bomb”: how FSO Safer became a ‘bargaining tool’ for Houthis Arab News https://www.arabnews.com/node/1832991/middle-east

US Destroyer Carries Out FONOP in Indian EEZ The move to publicly challenge India’s “excessive maritime claims” is sure to irk New Delhi privately. Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/us-destroyer-carries-out-fonop-in-indian-eez/

IOR Bulletin Perspective

When we discuss outside actors in the Indian Ocean Region and the broader Indo-Pacific, China and the U.S. generally top the list.  However, this perspective misses broader European engagement in the region.  France and the U.K. are frequent European actors in the region, and now it seems other Europeans are going to start showing up more (or at least that is what they are saying).  Germany and the Netherlands released Indo-Pacific strategies and guidance documents.  The Germans are currently planning a naval visit to the region, which will help clarify Germany’s approach to engagement in both the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean.  A Netherlands company's role in helping free the Ever Given in the Suez Canal highlights what likely is broader maritime industrial connections between Indian Ocean Region and European companies than generally discussed in the press or great power competition research. 

Furthermore, the German deployment does not mark a significant first for European maritime engagement in the Indian Ocean Region by European Union countries.  Europeans are present via participation in the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) and EU CRIMARIO I & II activities, which focus on maritime security and maritime domain awareness.  Furthermore, the EU conducted an Interreg project known as Interreg V Indian Ocean to foster development between Mayotte and La Reunion and 12 countries in the Indian Ocean Region from 2014 to 2020.  The EU MASE Programme is also supporting the Regional Maritime Information Fusion Center in Madagascar and the Regional Coordination Center in the Seychelles to advance maritime governance. So while Germany and the Netherlands may represent the tip of the iceberg of European countries writing intentional Indo-Pacific documents, these publications are not indicative of new European activity.  Instead, the documents reveal a potential European attempt to create more cohesive approaches between European activities in the Indian Ocean Region and Asia-Pacific. 

As European states begin to come more broadly into the Indian Ocean Region and its transition zone with the Asia-Pacific in Southeast Asia, they will be interacting with an increasingly complex environment of opportunities and challenges.  These range from 5G infrastructure development and its impact on the maritime domain to coups (see Myanmar); illicit trafficking; terrorism (Mozambique); great power competition; climate change and follow-on economic, sociocultural, and environmental considerations; and man-made disasters, such as Japanese and Chinese ships running aground in Mauritius or the unfortunately too popular SAFER waiting to happen off Yemen.

One European country that appears best positioned to help inform deeper European engagement with the region and approaches to facilitating solutions to grasp opportunities and address challenges if France.  With its position in the Southern Indian Ocean, thorugh Mayotee and La Reunion, and presen in Djibouti and Abu Dhabi, France likely rates as the most capable Euorpean country in terms of economic, security, and sociocultural ties to the Indian Ocean.  It's presence in New Caledonia and French Polynesia also make it uniquely positioned to help Europe play a much wider role across the Indo-Pacific, especially with small states, such as the island states.

What are your thoughts on European engagement with the Indian Ocean Region as we move further into the 21st Century?  Where can Europe be best engaged and in what manner?

What’s Next

Once again, thank you for your contributions and hints on what to watch.  

Next IOR Bulletin -- June 2021.  Accepting inputs at iorbulletin@gmail.com

Send us --  articles, reports, and updates on other activities you are engaging in within the region.  We’ll share the details with the community. 

All inputs can be sent to iorbulletin@gmail.com