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IOR Bulletin - December 2021

12/19/2021

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Picture
Photography: Weebly. Coast of Oman.
We are back after a bit of time off, and for this round we have an excellent presentation by Hawkeye 360 on IUU off the coast of Oman.  We'll let the analysis speak for itself!

Also on deck, recent works covering the continuing discussion of island states,  some interesting perspectives on futures for the Indian Ocean Region and strategic perspectives on topics running from the U.S. approach to the Indo-Pacific to discussion on India's aircraft carrier. 

Thank you to everyone for your continued study on this important region!


Hawkeye 360 graciously provided use the below information on illegal fishing taking place within Oman's EEZ.  The analysis uses satellite-based capture of RF signals to demonstrate how Chinese fishing vessels parked right next to Oman's EEZ turn-off their AIS and then proceed to cross the line into Oman's EEZ to conduct suspected illegal squid fishing.  This analysis captures a mere blip of the wider dark shipping issues within the Indian Ocean.  The first slide shows the positioning of Chinese vessels just outside Oman's EEZ.  The next series of slides uses RF signals and other analytical approaches to then track those vessels as they turn off AIS and cross over into Oman's EEZ. 

Analyst comments from Hawkeye 360:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vvqc-Q9XBgdN0pYxZyejfp7PLwbykxkV/view?usp=sharing

Recent Works
Islands
 
Nilanthi Samaranayake
https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003206408-14/quad-plus-nilanthi-samaranayake

https://www.9dashline.com/article/sri-lanka-navigating-geopolitics-regional-asymmetry-and-a-national-crisis

Darshan Barauh

https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/09/20/ocean-nations-indo-pacific-islands-dialogue-event-7680


Futures & Strategic Outlook


Arzan Tarapore


https://drive.google.com/file/d/1d-pBtfQjCtxWbAl5M_xkios5uWhlRQFW/view?usp=sharing

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2021/09/29/aukus-is-deeper-than-just-submarines/
 
Jacob Stokes
https://www.9dashline.com/article/assessing-the-biden-administrations-policy-toward-the-indo-pacific

VADM (retd.) Pradeep Chauhan
https://docs.google.com/document/d/17CRST7vJj8sQ_Yv5H7emBl_QGaMe_SHs/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=107979634958296226838&rtpof=true&sd=true


News
2021 edition of the “Indo-Pacific Regional Dialogue” (IPRD ), which is an annually recurring, apex-level international conference of the Indian Navy on maritime strategy, was held 27, 28, and 29 October.
https://maritimeindia.org/the-indo-pacific-regional-dialogue/
 
AUKUS row: Macron says Australian PM lied about submarine deal
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/1/frances-macron-says-australian-pm-lied-over-aukus-submarine-deal
 
Joint Leaders Statement on AUKUS
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/15/joint-leaders-statement-on-aukus/
 
AUKUS Is Deeper Than Just Submarines
https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/aukus-deeper-just-submarines

 
Indian Ocean Initiative Launch
https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/09/14/indian-ocean-initiative-launch-event-7682
 
Ocean Nations: An Indo-Pacific Islands Dialogue 
https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/09/20/ocean-nations-indo-pacific-islands-dialogue-event-7680
 
JOINT COMMUNICATION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL
The EU strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/jointcommunication_indo_pacific_en.pdf
 
How Can the U.S. Balance Rivalries in South Asia?

https://www.carnegie.org/topics/topic-articles/emerging-global-order/how-can-us-balance-rivalries-south-asia/
 
US Perspectives on Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean Region
https://rusi.org/podcasts/bridging-the-oceans/episode-24-us-perspectives-maritime-security-indian-ocean-region
 
MARITIME SECURITY COORDINATION AND COUNTERTRAFFICKING OPERATIONS ISSUES
https://nesa-center.org/maritime-security-coordination-and-countertrafficking-operations-issues/
 
MENA REGIONAL WATERS: RED SEA/ARABIAN SEA SMUGGLING CONUNDRUM WORKSHOP
https://nesa-center.org/mena-regional-waters-red-sea-arabian-sea-smuggling-conundrum-workshop/

 
New India Finds an Old Role in a Changing Middle East
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/29/india-modi-middle-east-quad-israel-uae-geopolitics/
 
Maritime Safety and Security: Whole-of-Africa Maritime Dialogue – Clarifying the Maritime Security
Architecture in Africa
https://africacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/2019-05-MSS-Namibia-Program-Summary-EN.pdf
 
U.K. Royal Navy Strike Group Drilling with Oman, UAE in Middle East
https://news.usni.org/2021/11/01/u-k-royal-navy-strike-group-drilling-with-oman-uae-in-middle-east
 
Iran, US give differing accounts in Sea of Oman tanker incident
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/3/iran-says-halted-us-navy-seizing-oil-tanker-in-sea-of-oman
 
What We Know about Maritime Environmental Crime
https://www.stableseas.org/post/what-we-know-about-maritime-environmental-crime


What's Next
Next IOR Bulletin – February 2022. Inputs always welcome early.
  • Send us -- articles, reports, and updates on other activities you are engaging in within the region. We’ll share the details with the community.
  • All inputs can be sent to iorbulletin@gmail.com
See you in 2022!
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